Financial Benchmark Sensitivity
Beta, alpha, correlation and tracking error against a total-trade benchmark, with asset-style tags.
01 · Benchmark sensitivity
Beta, alpha and the cycle.
Score any flow against a total-trade benchmark. Orion computes beta, alpha, correlation and tracking error, then labels whether the commodity amplifies or dampens the trade cycle.
- β · Beta vs benchmark — same-direction sensitivity, flagged from defensive to extreme amplifier.
- α · Alpha & residual return — excess movement the benchmark doesn't explain.
- TE · Tracking error — how loosely the flow follows the total-trade line.
02 · Volatility & tail risk
Upside, downside and the left tail.
Separate good volatility from bad. Orion splits dispersion into upside and downside, reads skewness and kurtosis, and shades the 5% VaR tail on the return distribution.
- σ⁺ / σ⁻ — upside and downside growth volatility, percentile-ranked.
- Skew & kurtosis — distribution shape, from normal to heavy-tailed.
- 5% VaR — expected drawdown in the worst tail, read in context.
03 · Tariff scenarios
Model the policy before it lands.
Switch any report into tariff mode, select partners, and layer a regime onto the corridor. See the delta on landed cost and exposure side by side with the base case.
- Partner selection — pick origins and destinations as tariff cards.
- Δ landed cost — the cost change per corridor, signed and ranked.
- Exposure shift — how the flow's risk profile moves under the regime.
CN · Base tariff
7.5%
CN · Scenario
25.0%
Δ Landed cost
+16.3%
Exposure shift
−2 flows